China emissions decline after US-Israeli war on Iran
Summary
China’s oil use fell by 9% and transport oil use by 16% during the second quarter, while overall transportation use increased after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran. An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% as electric vehicles and public transport use rose.
Digest
Jonathan Watts, 02 SEP 2026 — China increased overall transportation use despite cutting oil imports by 32%, according to second-quarter energy data from the National Bureau of Statistics analysed for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The reduction, equivalent to about a million barrels a day, helped stabilise global oil prices, which rose by about 60% after the first US airstrikes in late February. About two-thirds of the import decline came from reducing strategic stockpiles, while most of the remainder reflected lower demand. Oil use fell by 9% overall and 16% in transport as journeys by electric cars, buses, trains and trucks increased. In the first half of 2026, electric vehicles displaced oil consumption equivalent to the UK’s use over six months. Lauri Myllyvirta said transport decarbonisation had accelerated and that electrification provided protection against such shocks. He said this was China’s first emissions decline caused by reduced oil use rather than coal. Coal generation nevertheless rose because of economic incentives and grid delays that wasted wind and solar power. Dr Muyi Yang said a fossil fuel peak was approaching in some provinces and sectors, and that the Iran crisis strengthened the case for reducing oil-import dependence.
Production
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